by
Adam Samuels
There
are two old sayings that come to mind as September comes to a
close in the stock market. The first is, “Every dog has
its day,” and the second is “Everything old is new
again.” The aforementioned “dog” is Motorola
(MOT), which was first recommended in February by our stock market
expert for this month, Meredith Jones, branch manager for Raymond
James Financial Services. At that time, the stock was languishing
near its 52 week low at $8.10. The stock made a big move with
the technology sector in the last few months and now trades at
$12.31. While we at Portfolio sold the stock a couple of months
ago in order to take a profit, Jones is now recommending that
his clients do the same. As to the second statement about everything
old being new again, we have the words “total return”
and “global stocks” reentering our vocabulary. The
first boils down to a recommendation of a stock that may not be
a fast mover but has a dividend. The second group, global stocks,
has been out of fashion for long enough, and Jones is adding two
global stocks for total return to Portfolio this month.
Jones
thinks we’re nearing the top of a trading range in the Dow
and admits he “would be surprised if we had any big move
through 10,000,” and thinks we could have a more severe
reversal if we had weakness below the 8,700 level. “If you
look at the recent rally we’ve had in the market, it resembles
the rebound in the Dow from its lowest levels after the crash
of 1929.”With that in mind, Jones is taking his tech stocks
“off the table.” He feels that “people are jittery
and as long as that exists, I think investors now have the opportunity
to look abroad for a better total return.”
Besides
the global stocks, Jones feels another opportunity in the stock
market for some of the money exiting the technology sector is
in genomics. “In April of 2003, the map of the human genome
was completed with major contributions from the Washington University
Human Genome Center,” he says. The work was completed faster
than expected, thereby paving the way for targeted medicine. “I
think more aggressive investors can let go of some technology
and move to genome stocks.” A couple of the names mentioned
were the two divisions of a company called Applera, Applied Bio
Systems (ABI) and Celera Genomics (CRA).
Finally,
we asked Jones to remove two stocks from Portfolio and add two
of his own. Since he already informed us he was reducing exposure
to technology stocks, it wasn’t too hard to guess that IBM
and Microsoft (MSFT) would have to go. In their place we have
two global stocks featuring total return. The first, Royal Dutch
(RD) has a yield of 4.3 percent, but has languished for seven
years. “As one of the world’s largest oil companies,
I think it would benefit from a global recovery,” Jones
says. The second addition is Unilever (UL), which is one of the
world’s largest producers of consumer goods, including Lipton,
Ben & Jerry’s, Dove and Slim-Fast. “The company
has been on a four to five year corporate turnaround called the
“Path to Growth” strategy, which should finally take
hold,” says Jones. Besides, with a dividend of 4 percent,
investors can afford to wait.

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